Understanding bulk sugar pricing: what European buyers need to know in 2025-26 

In recent years, sugar pricing has become far more complex than simply tracking the global commodity markets. For European industrial ingredients buyers in food and beverage brands, the cost of sugar is shaped not just by the agricultural side of the business. Prices are increasingly dominated by a wide range of globally interconnected factors — from energy and freight to trade rules and climate events. 

Whether you are sourcing pure sugar ingredients like cane molasses or soft brown sugars or negotiating contracts for organic sugar syrups and liquid sugar blends, you are likely to be facing renewed volatility. This blog explains the key drivers influencing sugar prices and supply in 2025 while offering insights into what to expect as you plan your purchasing strategy for 2026. We highlight the importance of working with a responsible industrial ingredients manufacturer that delivers on time, in full and to specification, keeping your production lines running smoothly and to target capacity. 

Sugar is a global commodity, and changes on the other side of the world can quickly ripple through to European ingredients buyers. 

For example, Brazil, currently the world’s largest sugar exporter accounting for 21% of total production and 45% of global exports, remains a central influence. Its decision to allocate more of its sugarcane crop to ethanol production when oil prices rise can limit global sugar supply, lifting prices for food and beverage buyers. The higher oil prices in 2024 demonstrated this shift, tightening global availability. Volatile oil prices seen so far in 2025 has prompted mills to switch to crystalline production.  

India, the world’s largest consumer of sugar and second largest producer, has frequently restricted exports to support consumption at home. If this happens again, it places greater pressure on Brazilian and Thai (another leading producer and exporter) exports. 

Weather is another critical factor. El Niño, India’s monsoon season, drought conditions in Thailand, or flooding in Europe’s beet-growing regions can all disrupt harvests. With climate-related events becoming more frequent and severe, the supply outlook is harder to predict. 

Demand also plays a role. Countries such as China have returned to stronger post-pandemic import levels as local production falls well short of forecast consumption, while global consumption of processed foods that contain sugar continues to increase across developing economies. These trends tighten the market further and add upward pressure to prices. 

The pure sugar ingredients you buy are only part of the pricing equation — understanding the cost of raw materials further upstream in the supply chain is also important. 

Raw cane sugar prices rose to historic highs in 2024 before flattening in H1 2025, driven by constrained supply and currency volatility. Sugar beet prices in the EU also experienced steady price increases in the early 2020s, before stabilising in 2024 and softening during H1 2025. This volatility reflects higher input costs, climate extremes such as flooding and droughts and stricter sustainability requirements in agricultural supply chains. 

Molasses, a byproduct of sugar refining, has seen growing demand from feed and fermentation markets, contributing to firming prices. However, geopolitical and macroeconomic instability is making the access and shipping of global molasses supply very tight. Meanwhile, the price of refinery-grade white sugar fluctuates based on refining margins, energy inputs, and availability of raw cane and beet stocks. 

Exchange rates also affect costs. A weaker pound against the US dollar can make imported cane sugar and molasses more expensive. Likewise, euro-pound movements influence the competitiveness of EU beet sugar in the UK market.  

Energy prices have been a major influence on industrial costs in recent years, particularly in energy-intensive sectors like sugar refining. Gas and electricity are central to the refining process. Energy volatility in the UK and EU — driven by geopolitical events and carbon pricing — continues to feed through into product costs. 

Labour shortages have driven up wages and increased costs in logistics and production. This includes everything from HGV driver wages to specialist operatives in the sugar supply chain. 

Freight has been particularly challenging. Sea freight for raw sugar remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, and road haulage within the UK and across Europe faces ongoing pressure. For liquid sugars, transport in IBCs or bulk tankers requires specialist logistics planning — adding further complexity. 

On top of this, compliance costs linked to emissions reporting, packaging requirements, and food safety regulations all contribute to the final price of sugar ingredients. 

For European food and beverage ingredients buyers, sugar pricing is also influenced by the rules governing imports and tariffs. 

In the UK, tariffs on sugar imports depend on product type, origin, and intended use. Raw cane sugar for refining may attract lower tariffs than the same sugar for direct consumption. The UK Global Tariff (UKGT) system still applies to non-preferential countries, while trade agreements can reduce or eliminate duties. 

Since the UK left the EU Customs Union and Single Market on 31 January 2020, it is now a third country. This means sugar ingredients imported from the UK into EU member states are subject to the EU’s Common External Tariff (CET) and full WTO MFN tariffs, unless there is a specific agreement that says otherwise. 

The UK has also signed or is negotiating trade agreements with India and members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, which could affect future sugar flows. Meanwhile, sugar imports from Least Developed Countries (LDCs) continue to enter both the UK and EU tariff-free under special preference schemes. These imports — especially from African, Caribbean, and Pacific nations — play a key role in shaping market availability and pricing dynamics. 

With so many cost drivers in play, European sugar buyers are likely to face more complex contract discussions in the months ahead. We expect continued volatility in H2 2025, especially in energy, freight, and raw material costs.  

Negotiating for the 2025/26 sugar year is not just about getting mutually beneficial terms from your sugar supply partner — it is about securing continuity of supply of the right sugar ingredients with the required functional properties, when your production line needs them. 

Planning your bulk sugar ingredients procurement strategy has never been more complex. But with the right supply partner, it becomes manageable. Ragus sources primary cane and beet sugars from approved suppliers in Africa, the Asia Pacific, the Caribbean, Europe and South America. 

Our sugar sourcing expertise ensures we provide our customers with continuity of supply and we combine market insight with manufacturing expertise to help you make informed decisions. We understand the pricing factors behind every syrup, treacle, and crystalline sugar ingredient we manufacture — and we work closely with you to structure contracts that match your commercial needs. 

Whether you are sourcing food-grade molasses, golden syrup, or customised formulations, we deliver pure sugar ingredients with consistent quality and continuity of supply. To learn more about our pure sugars, contact our Customer Services Team. For more sugar news and Ragus updates, keep browsing SUGARTALK and follow Ragus on LinkedIn.